Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.