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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.