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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|